Coconut Market Report 23.01.25

Coconut Market Report 23.01.25

Posted on Jan 01, 2025, 

Coconut Market Outlook 2025: Supply Pressures and Rising Prices

As we enter 2025, the coconut market remains under significant pressure due to severe raw material shortages driven by adverse weather conditions. The lingering effects of La Niña —including heavy rains, floods, and typhoons—have severely disrupted production in key regions such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam . Strong global demand and ongoing supply chain constraints are compounding these challenges.

Raw Material Shortages

Factories in major coconut-producing countries are facing critical raw material shortages :

 In Indonesia and Vietnam , raw nut supplies have plummeted to just 10–20% of normal daily levels.

 Sri Lanka is grappling with soaring prices due to heightened domestic demand and limited availability.

 Large-scale raw coconut purchases by China and Thailand from Indonesia and Vietnam are further tightening supply.

Rising Prices

Prices for raw nuts and derivative coconut products, including desiccated coconut , continue to escalate. Many Philippine factories are unable to commit to near-term shipments, prioritizing orders scheduled for June onward .

Supply Chain Disruptions

Low raw material availability, shipping delays, and extended transit times are causing inventory shortages in key markets such as Europe, the USA, and the Middle East . Demand is peaking, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa , ahead of Ramadan .

Weather Impact

Although the Philippines’ typhoon season is tapering off, persistent La Niña-driven rains and flooding continue to disrupt crops and harvests. These adverse weather conditions are expected to persist into the first half of 2025 , delaying recovery.

Market Outlook for 2025

Supply shortages and rising prices are likely to dominate the first half of 2025 , with no significant improvement in raw material availability expected before Q2 or Q3 . To mitigate risks, we strongly advise customers to forecast demand carefully and plan purchases well in advance to avoid inventory disruptions.