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The imbalance in supply and demand is forecasted to keep coffee prices high in the second quarter.
In a recent report, the Import-Export Department predicted that in the remaining months of the second quarter of 2024, global coffee prices will remain high. The European coffee consumer market is currently volatile due to the supply-demand imbalance from Vietnam, following a lower-than-average Robusta coffee yield in the 2022-2023 crop year, estimated at 28.5 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year.
In the global market, July robusta coffee futures on the London exchange also decreased by 18.4% from the peak, down to 3,433 USD/ton.
There are quite a few reasons for the recent decline in the coffee market.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), this decline is primarily due to the recovery of inventories on the ICE exchange; profit-taking in the paper market (net long positions on the ICE exchange in Europe decreased by 5,042 lots from April 16 to 23); and the strengthening of the USD, which has encouraged selling activities.
The Import-Export Department stated that Vietnam’s coffee industry is currently benefiting from a sharp upward trend in export prices. It is estimated that the average export price of Vietnamese coffee in April reached 3,791 USD/ton, an increase of 6.6% compared to the previous month and 55.4% compared to the same period last year.
For the first four months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee is estimated at 3,402 USD/ton, an increase of 49.7% compared to the same period in 2023.
